Ottawa Housing Market: Heading into Q4 2025 — Where We’ve Been & What’s Ahead

Oct 7

As we roll into the final quarter, the Ottawa real estate market continues to show resilience and balance. Sales have slowed seasonally, inventory is rising, but prices are holding rather than collapsing, a sign that demand is still solid underneath the surface. Below is a guided look at how things have evolved so far this year, how each property segment is behaving, what to watch in Q4, and what might shape where we land by the end of the year.

The Year in Review So Far

From January through to the end of September, Ottawa has followed a familiar rhythm: a busy spring, a quieter summer, and now a steady transition into fall. What stands out this year is balance, neither an insane seller’s market nor a sluggish buyer’s one, but a measured middle ground where opportunity exists on both sides.

Single-Family Homes

Single-family homes continue to anchor stability across the market. The average sale price sits around $850,000, up roughly 3.4% compared to last September. Homes are selling in about 19 days on average, the same as this time last year, with inventory holding just below four months of supply.

While prices have edged up modestly, sales activity is down about 2.8% year-over-year, suggesting that demand hasn’t disappeared; it’s just become more selective. Buyers are taking their time, comparing more options, and factoring borrowing costs more carefully. Still, well-priced, well-presented homes continue to attract strong interest and sell efficiently, especially in established family neighbourhoods where supply remains tight.

Townhomes

Townhomes have been one of the brighter spots in Ottawa’s market this year. The average sale price is now around $555,000, down roughly 4.7% from last September. These homes are taking a little longer to sell, about 22 days on average, up slightly from last year, but activity has surged. Sales are up an impressive 32.9% year-over-year, showing that demand for the “missing middle” remains strong.

Buyers who might have been priced out of the detached market are gravitating toward townhomes for their blend of affordability, space, and community living. Even with softer pricing, townhomes are driving much of Ottawa’s stability this fall, bridging the gap between condos and detached homes.

Apartments & Condos

The condo and apartment segment continues to show the most adjustment. The average sale price sits near $424,000, a modest 0.7% decline from last year. Units are taking longer to sell, about 36 days on average, and inventory has grown to just over five months of supply, the highest among all property types.

Sales activity is down 19.2% year-over-year, reflecting a market where buyers have more choice and are taking longer to make decisions. Elevated supply, tighter investor lending rules, and higher carrying costs have cooled this segment, particularly in newer or higher-fee buildings. That said, the increased selection offers excellent opportunities for first-time buyers and downsizers looking for value and location without rushing.

Why Prices Are Staying Stable

Even with inventory on the rise and activity fluctuating across segments, Ottawa’s prices have remained impressively steady. The city’s market is largely driven by real-life needs; families growing, relocations, downsizing… rather than speculation. That keeps demand consistent, even when economic conditions shift.

Sellers, meanwhile, have adjusted expectations without panic. They’re pricing more strategically and leaning on staging, presentation, and timing to stand out. This balance, realistic sellers and discerning buyers, has created a calm, steady market where both sides can find success.

The Interest Rate Factor

In mid-September, the Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, its first move in several months. It’s a modest change, but psychologically it matters. Rate cuts tend to restore confidence, especially for first-time buyers who have been waiting for affordability to improve. If mortgage lenders continue to pass on lower rates this fall, we could see a small bump in demand heading into late Q4 or early 2026.

What to Watch as the Year Winds Down

As we move through Q4, a few key trends will shape how the year finishes:

Inventory growth — More listings could pressure slower segments, particularly condos, though detached homes remain relatively insulated.
Rate direction — Another rate cut could spark renewed interest; a hold would likely maintain current momentum.
Confidence and affordability — Consumer sentiment and wage growth will continue to dictate buying power.
Seasonality — As always, the market tends to quiet down through late fall, leaving serious buyers and sellers to define the tone of the winter market.

Outlook

If conditions stay on their current path, Ottawa looks set to close out 2025 on solid footing — steady prices, manageable supply, and a balanced pace.

Single-family homes should finish the year slightly ahead, townhomes may see modest recovery after their mid-year dip, and condos will remain the most negotiable segment, offering opportunities for buyers ready to make their move.

If you’d like to know how these trends are shaping values in your specific neighbourhood — or what your home might sell for in today’s market — I’d be happy to put together a personalized update. Reach out anytime for an honest, data-driven look at where things stand and where they’re headed.